What are the odds? In Probability 101, the expected break-even answer always assumes a perfectly balanced coin and the ideal atmospheric state. Meanwhile, back here in the real world, neither the coins nor the geopolitical advantages are evenly distributed.

Spoleto, our cherished home-away-from-home, is among the lucky ones.  Being twenty miles from the epicenter of the recent earthquake surely helps.  So too, however, the advantages of wealth: literally building on its cultural cachet, over the years, the town has reinforced ancient buildings with earthquake-resistant infrastructures.

The smaller villages and towns in the mountainous areas, like Amatrice and Castelluccio, are significantly worlds apart. (Italy has an estimated 20,000 semi-abandoned villages, I have just found out. After World War II, the locals often departed in search of a better life. And while some later returned to their homes, they typically settled for a summer retreat.)

The town of Accumoli, for example, has about 600 permanent residents; while in the summer, the tiny population soars into the thousands. Castelluccio, much smaller in size, follows the same basic pattern for quite different reasons (harsh winters and the seasonal rhythms of agricultural production keep folk away).

Just as in the States, for the rest of the summer our future holds a tale of two types of towns–one relatively safe, teeming with life, and wealth; the other, remote, tragically devastated, and perpetually poor. As in this scene, captured on film, at two points in time.